Foreign Policy
What Is Happening in Gaza in 2026? The Conflict Status
The Gaza war — which began with the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel — entered its third year without resolution, leaving behind a catastrophic humanitarian situation that has no clear path to end.
Getting past the politics requires starting with the undisputed facts.
October 7 and What It Changed
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched the most devastating attack on Israeli civilians since the state's founding. Armed Hamas fighters crossed from Gaza into southern Israel, killing approximately 1,200 people — mostly civilians at a music festival, in kibbutzim, and in their homes — and taking approximately 250 hostages back to Gaza.
The attack was horrific. It was also a strategic decision by Hamas that its leadership knew would produce a massive Israeli military response. The question of why Hamas chose to launch the attack — knowing the consequences for Gaza's civilian population — remains contested and unresolved, with different analysts emphasizing different motivations.
Israel's military response began with an intensive air campaign and expanded to a ground invasion in late October 2023. Israel stated its goals as eliminating Hamas military and governing capacity and returning all hostages.
The Humanitarian Catastrophe
By any objective measure, the scale of civilian death and destruction in Gaza is exceptional even by modern conflict standards.
Over 35,000 Palestinians have been killed — the majority in the first year of the conflict. Independent analyses of the casualty data (cross-referenced with Gaza health ministry figures against satellite imagery and population data) suggest the number may be significantly higher when accounting for indirect deaths from disease, starvation, and lack of medical care.
Large portions of Gaza's housing, hospital, water, and electrical infrastructure have been destroyed. More than 80% of Gaza's population has been displaced. Famine conditions were documented in northern Gaza beginning in early 2024 and have persisted intermittently.
The International Court of Justice opened proceedings on South Africa's case that Israel's actions in Gaza constitute genocide. The ICJ issued provisional orders calling for prevention of genocidal acts and humanitarian access; it has not made a final ruling on whether genocide occurred.
The US Role
The United States has been Israel's primary weapons supplier throughout the conflict — providing bombs, artillery shells, fighter jet spare parts, and other military equipment in transfers worth billions of dollars.
The Biden administration simultaneously approved weapons transfers and called publicly for civilian protection and increased humanitarian access. This contradiction — supplying the weapons while verbally opposing specific uses of them — generated significant domestic protest and damage to Democratic coalition politics.
Trump continued and in several instances expanded weapons support. His administration announced a proposal for US "taking over" reconstruction of Gaza and displacing its population to other Arab countries — a proposal rejected by virtually all Arab states and most of the international community.
The Hostages and the Ceasefire Dynamics
As of 2026, a portion of the October 7 hostages remain in Gaza — some confirmed alive, some confirmed dead, some unknown. Multiple ceasefire agreements have been negotiated (with Qatar and Egypt as mediators), implemented partially, and broken.
The pattern: Israel conducts hostage-for-prisoner exchanges, fighting pauses, and then resumes when either side decides the truce terms aren't being honored or the strategic calculus changes.
A comprehensive ceasefire and resolution of the conflict's underlying political questions — who governs Gaza after the war, what happens to the Palestinian Authority, whether a Palestinian state will exist — has not been achieved. Each ceasefire has been a pause rather than an end.
The underlying political questions that produced October 7 — Palestinian statelessness, settlement expansion in the West Bank, governance failure in Gaza, Israeli security concerns — remain entirely unresolved by three years of war.