Key Takeaways

  • The US-Saudi relationship is built on three pillars: oil/energy security, regional stability, and arms sales.
  • Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter and a key OPEC+ swing producer that can materially affect global oil prices.
  • The relationship has survived enormous controversies — including the September 11 hijackers (15 of 19 were Saudi) and the Khashoggi murder.
  • Trump is pursuing closer ties with Saudi Arabia including a potential defense treaty and $100+ billion arms deal in exchange for Saudi Israel normalization.

AI Summary

Key takeaways highlight The US-Saudi relationship is built on three pillars: oil/energy security, regional stability, and arms sales. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter and a key OPEC+ swing producer that can materially affect global oil prices. The relationship has survived enormous controversies — including the September 11 hijackers (15 of 19 were Saudi) and the Khashoggi murder. Trump is pursuing closer ties with Saudi Arabia including a potential defense treaty and $100+ billion arms deal in exchange for Saudi Israel normalization.

What Is the US Relationship with Saudi Arabia and Why Does It Matter?

The US-Saudi Arabian relationship is possibly the most morally uncomfortable major alliance in American foreign policy. And it is one of the most durable.

Understanding why requires separating what each party actually gets from the partnership.

The Deal As It Actually Exists

What the US gets:

  • Saudi Arabia maintains oil production at levels that help keep global energy markets stable
  • Access to Saudi Arabia's massive sovereign wealth fund as a financial partner
  • Base rights and military cooperation in the Gulf region
  • Counter-terrorism intelligence cooperation (imperfect and complicated, but real)
  • Saudi purchasing of US weapons systems — billions in arms deals that support US defense industry and jobs
  • Saudi cooperation with US dollar-denominated oil trade (the "petrodollar" system)

What Saudi Arabia gets:

  • US military protection, including from Iran — the primary security threat to the Saudi monarchy
  • Access to US weapons, training, and military technology
  • Political protection at the UN and in international forums
  • Technology cooperation
  • Investment and financial access to US markets

Neither side particularly likes the other. The US government knows Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy with a brutal human rights record that spawned 15 of the 19 September 11 hijackers. Saudi Arabia knows the US lectures it about human rights while taking its money and selling it bombs.

The relationship continues because both sides have concluded the alternatives are worse.

The Khashoggi Line They Didn't Cross

In October 2018, Jamal Khashoggi — a Saudi journalist living in the US and writing for the Washington Post — walked into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Saudi operatives killed him inside the consulate and dismembered his body.

US intelligence services concluded with high confidence that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) — the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia — approved the operation.

Trump's response: a statement declining to formally hold MBS accountable, citing the "tremendous amount of investment" and "hundreds of billions of dollars" in Saudi spending in the US.

Biden, who called Saudi Arabia a "pariah state" during his campaign, ultimately met with MBS and continued arms sales — though he declassified the intelligence assessment naming MBS and imposed some sanctions on lower-level participants.

The message to the world: if you have enough oil and enough money to buy American weapons, the US will not hold you accountable for murdering an American-resident journalist.

That is a real cost to US credibility on human rights, democracy promotion, and rule of law. Both parties have demonstrated they are willing to pay it.

The Saudi-Israel Deal and What Trump Is Offering

The biggest active diplomatic effort in US-Saudi relations is the potential normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Saudi requirements have included: a US mutual defense treaty (essentially a NATO-style commitment), civilian nuclear technology assistance including uranium enrichment, and some form of advancement toward Palestinian statehood.

The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and Gaza war complicated the Palestinian statehood piece enormously. But Trump's team — led by Jared Kushner's family real estate connections and Steve Witkoff as special envoy — has pursued a framework where Saudi Arabia receives the defense treaty and nuclear assistance without requiring formal Palestinian statehood, in exchange for normalization with Israel.

Whether this framework succeeds depends on whether domestic Saudi politics allow MBS to normalize with Israel while Gaza is still being bombed. It also depends on whether the US Senate would ratify a mutual defense treaty — which would commit US forces to Saudi defense by treaty obligation, a politically complicated commitment given Saudi Arabia's human rights record.

The deal, if it happens, would reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics. The price, as always in the US-Saudi relationship, involves looking away from things that are hard to look away from.

FAQ

Why is the US allied with Saudi Arabia?

The US-Saudi relationship rests on mutual interests: the US values Saudi Arabia's oil supply, OPEC+ influence on energy prices, regional stability partnerships, counter-terrorism cooperation, and massive arms purchases. Saudi Arabia values US military protection (including from Iran), weapons and technology access, and the security umbrella the US provides. The relationship has persisted through serious moral conflicts because both sides find it too valuable to abandon.

What happened with Jamal Khashoggi and US-Saudi relations?

Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist critical of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), was murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018. US intelligence assessed with high confidence that MBS approved the operation. The Biden administration declassified this assessment. Trump's first term declined to formally hold MBS accountable. Biden met with MBS despite campaign rhetoric and continued arms sales. The episode illustrated that strategic interests overwhelm human rights concerns in US-Saudi policy.

What is the Saudi-Israel normalization deal?

The Abraham Accords (2020) normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. The major prize sought by both the Trump and Biden administrations was Saudi-Israel normalization. Saudi Arabia's requirements have included a US mutual defense treaty, civilian nuclear technology assistance, and progress on Palestinian statehood. Israel-Saudi normalization was interrupted by October 7, 2023, but negotiations have resumed under Trump's second term with a framework involving security guarantees rather than formal Palestinian statehood.

Can Saudi Arabia manipulate gas prices against the US?

Saudi Arabia, as the world's largest oil exporter and the key swing producer in OPEC+, can significantly influence global crude oil prices by changing its production levels. In 2022, Saudi Arabia and Russia-led OPEC+ cut production over Biden administration objections, contributing to higher gas prices. This demonstrated the limits of US leverage over a partner with independent economic interests. The relationship is transactional and Saudi Arabia pursues its own interests, not US preferences.