Foreign Policy
Trump and Iran: What Is Actually at Stake
The confrontation with Iran is the most likely scenario for a large-scale US military conflict in 2026-2027 that most Americans are not paying attention to.
Here is the core problem: when the Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran was enriching uranium to about 3.67% purity under IAEA inspection — far below the 90% needed for weapons. By 2026, Iran is enriching to 60% purity with significantly expanded centrifuge capacity. The gap between where Iran was under the deal and where it is now without the deal is the direct result of the withdrawal. (IAEA, Iran Nuclear Monitoring Reports)
The "maximum pressure" strategy that drove the withdrawal was supposed to produce a better deal. Eight years in, there is no better deal. There is a more advanced Iranian nuclear program.
The military option is seductive but limited in what it can achieve. US and Israeli airstrikes could potentially destroy or damage Iran's most advanced facilities. They cannot erase the knowledge or the will. Iran would rebuild. The timeline would be set back, not permanently reversed. And the retaliation would be immediate.
Iran's retaliatory toolkit is significant. Hezbollah has roughly 150,000 rockets pointed at Israel. The Houthis have demonstrated the ability to strike shipping in the Red Sea and oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have repeatedly struck US bases. A full-scale US-Iran war would instantly involve all of these actors.
The US military is already managing elevated operational tempos in multiple theaters. Adding a full-scale conflict with Iran — and the regional war it would trigger — to the current load is a severe strain on forces, equipment, and the defense industrial base.
The diplomatic path back is harder than it was in 2015. Iran's internal politics have hardened. The reformist faction that negotiated the JCPOA has weakened. The IRGC — which runs the nuclear program and the proxy network — has strengthened. A deal is not impossible, but the bar is higher and the trust is gone.
What is certain: the current trajectory is moving toward either a nuclear-armed Iran or a war. Neither is good. The decisions being made now are setting up that choice.